2010年12月23日 星期四

讀孫子兵法學英文/兵來將擋 best response

兵來將擋 best response
黛拉和吉姆是貧窮的年輕夫妻。耶誕節前夕,兩人想盡辦法(leave no stone unturned ),想找出一些錢來買禮物送給對方。
黛拉的長髮濃密又美麗,於是她上街賣掉一頭秀髮,買了白金表鏈,滿心以為(rational assumption)這樣可以讓吉姆高興,因為吉姆非常珍惜他的金表,這是傳家之寶。
吉姆回家,看見黛拉的短髮,大吃一驚(taken aback),因為他才買了一把鑲有寶石的梳子,給黛拉作為禮物,好用來寶貝她的頭髮。錢怎麼來的?他把心愛的金表賣了!
一廂情願…誤判情勢損美意
因為兩人一廂情願(wishful thinkers)的個性,讓黛拉失去美麗的長髮,也讓吉姆失去珍貴的金表。事情不會永遠朝我們自以為是的方向發展,這是美國小說聖手歐亨利最擅長描寫的主題。
現實生活中,這種誤判的事情也所在多有。形勢轉變,別人的善意(the kindness of strangers)有時會隨之變質,而抓不到重點,更會把理所當然的美事,轉成晴天霹靂(out of the blue)的惡耗。
孫子說:「不知彼而知己,一勝一負」,這是指了解競爭對手底細愈多,你就能夠找到賽局理論裏的最佳對策(best response)來確保戰果,勝算就會愈大。
知彼知己…摸清底細保戰果
所謂兵來將擋,水來土掩,就是風險管控得當(calculated risk),對策可以放行無虞(give someone the green light)。因此如果能夠溝通得法,找到最佳對策,黛拉和吉姆前述的遺憾,當然也就可以避免了。
例:" In searching for some money to buy the Christmas gifts for each other,they left no stone unturned."「為了買耶誕禮物給對方,兩人上窮碧落下黃泉似地找錢。」
"She thought it was a rational assumption that her husband would treasure the gift."「她自忖她的先生理當會喜歡這個禮物。」
"When he saw her new hair cut, he was taken back for a moment."「看著她的新髮型,他大吃一驚,半响說不出話。」
"They both are very sweet, wishful thinkers. They do not deal with the alternate reality of what the outcome probably in reality will be, and get into trouble with this way of assessing situations."「他倆都是那種不太用腦筋,也不深入事情變化的人;因為一廂情願,所以常常把事情搞到枝節橫生的地步。」
"We often rely on the kindness of strangers to increase our happiness, but we should keep in mind that it might become unkind easily."「我們常仰賴他人的善意來追求幸福,但這種善意很容易變成惡意,我們要謹記在心。」
最佳對策…提高勝算多溝通
"The loss came out of the blue. It happened suddenly and they were not expecting it."「因為雙方都沒有心理準備,損失突如其來,猶如晴天霹靂。」
"In order to produce the most favorable outcome for this young couple, they need to communicate more to reach their best responses."「為了增進最大福祉,小倆口有必要多溝通,找到最佳對策。」
"They took a calculated risk when they found the best responses."「找到最佳對策之後,勝算大大提高。」"Her husband gave her the green light to spend the money."「她老公允許她花那筆錢。」
(作者任教陸軍官校,suntzu@suntzu4u.com.tw)
【2010/12/24 經濟日報】

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