前衛生署長楊志良拍賣公事包,鴻海董事長郭台銘委託屬下競標,碰上一群仰慕楊署長的人集資競標,價格一路飆升,郭台銘最後以500萬900元買下,創下台灣公益網拍最高紀錄。
一般在競標過程中,資訊隱晦難明(black as a skillet ),拍賣的買家愈多,高估標價的買家存在的機會也愈大,導致得標價被墊高到超過其真正的市場價值,雖然打敗許多人(let them fall by the wayside),卻也讓投標變成無底洞( the cask of Danaides)。因此,賽局理論指出:買家人數愈多,「贏者的詛咒」(winner's curse)發生機會也更大。
競標期間,在混亂的搶標競爭中(run the gauntlet),郭董指示屬下:底線「無限上綱」,大把銀彈上場(throw down the gauntlet),得主果然非他莫屬。郭董得標,讚揚了署長的人品,又讓自己搏得無限美名,一舉數得只花500萬元,不愧是身經百戰,千錘百鍊 (went through the gauntlet)的經營者。
孫子說:「攻城之法,為不得已。修櫓轒轀,具器械,三月而後成;距堙,又三月而後已。」不能像郭董分辨出(keep track of)追求目標的真正價值,拚命投入,到頭來即使如願,也可能得不償失。
例:"With incomplete information, the participants felt the situation in the auction as black as a skillet."「競標場上投標者缺乏精準訊息,只覺得眼前漆黑一片。」
"Many bidders gave up for they realized they were competing against a man with a deep pocket, but John was determined to stick it out to the bitter end."「許多競標者覺得口袋不夠深而退出,只有老張還死撐到最後。」
"He didn't really like the feeling of being a loser, therefore he stuck it out."「他不呷意輸的感覺,所以硬拚到底。」"Overplaying gives the winner a black day in the auction."「出價太多,得標者難過不已。」
"It was like the cask of Danaides into which the auction winner had been pleased to pour his money."「過程有如在填無底洞,得標人當時卻喜孜孜地把錢大把大把往裡丟。」
"A lot of bidders fall by the wayside during their first attempt at auction."「看過第一次出價,許多投標者就不支倒地。」
"The winner was forced to run the gauntlet against other participants. And a fierce competition did break out after he threw down the gauntlet."「經過和群雄一番苦戰,得標人才順利贏得標的。」
"The company went through the depression gauntlet and became stronger ever since."「公司度過不景氣的難關,業務蒸蒸日上。」
"They have been making a great but useless effort to win the bid, for they did not keep track of the gap between the real value and the reserve price."「這些人不知道真正價值和帳面標價的差距,卻一味傻乎乎地競標。」
(作者任教陸軍官校,著有《讀孫子兵法學英文賺錢──40招讓你一開口就贏》,suntzu@suntzu4u.com.tw)
【2011/04/01 經濟日報】
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